Submitted by acohill on Tue, 12/14/2004 - 07:51
My experiences with Oracle date back to the early eighties, when the database ran only on DEC's VAX system, and the company was working with AT&T to port the system to Unix. At that time, Oracle's chief software developer lived in a cabin in the woods somewhere in the northwest, and phoned in his work to the Silicon Valley company.
My Irish boss, Frank, used to get Larry Ellison on the phone weekly and scream at him about the all the problems we were having with the beta Unix port of Oracle.
Twenty years later, Oracle has run out of steam. Like IBM, the company seems to have run out of intellectual capital, and so has given up innovation and bought an applications company.
Oracle's been in trouble for a while. Like Microsoft, they had a virtual monopoly in their product space through the eighties and nineties, but have not been able to develop a strategy to deal with the increasing robustness and high quality of Open Source database systems like mySQL and Postgres. These free database systems have been quietly trimming Oracle's customer base, and it's largely Oracle's fault. The company became fat and happy charging high prices for its products when there was little competition, and any customer who could make the switch to an Open Source product has either done so already or is seriously considering it.
Instead of innovating, changing its price structure, or competing on service, Oracle has effectively given up and bought an entirely different business. Oracle is going to go away, but the company is likely to lose focus as it tries to be both a database company and a software application company. The move will accelerate the loss of customers for its database product, and like IBM, there will likely come a time when Oracle will regret the decision.
Submitted by acohill on Mon, 12/13/2004 - 08:14
IBM has sold their PC business to a Chinese firm. There has been much news coverage about this. They sold it for just over $1 billion, which is a paltry sum, considering the global market.
Most of the news coverage has been about whether or not it is a "good deal" for IBM. The conventional wisdom has been saying it makes sense for IBM to get out of a cutthroatl, commodity market with razor-thin margins.
But I see something different in the sale. What I see is a company that, like much of the rest of the IT industry, is intellectually bankrupt. It's almost beyond belief that IBM, with some of the brightest people in the industry on its staff, could not come with anything new, different, or interesting to differentiate IBM pcs from a cheap clone.
PCs are horrible devices. They work poorly, are virus-prone, are hard to fix and hard to maintain, and make simple things bizarrely complex much of the time. IBM could not come with a single thing that would make the PC better? This does not bode well for the American IT industry, for it IBM couldn't do it, with the resources the company has, who else will? Gateway can't. Dell won't--Dell makes it money selling stuff cheaper than everyone else, so it won't spend a nickel on research and development.
Microsoft is still two years away from the mythical Longhorn software upgrade to Windows. Longhorn has been in development for so many years now, it's almost a joke.
The only hardware innovation is coming from Apple. Apple has been delivering a major software upgrade every year for years, and issues minor upgrades almost every other month. Apple's hardware, year after year, wins design awards for it's good looks and functionality. Apple constantly strives to make its equipment simpler to use--the new G5 iMac requires, in one configuration, just one cable--the power cable--to be fully functional. That's right, you take it out of the box, plug it in the wall, and the machine is ready for use. And Apple's hardware is now cheaper, on a feature by feature basis, than Wintel pcs.
Submitted by acohill on Fri, 12/10/2004 - 10:04
I'm appalled at my own computer. The box itself is fine, sitting on the floor next to my desk, but the complete rat's nest of wires next to it is just awful. Counting power cables that power numerous peripheral devices, there are more than thirty cables that are needed just to type an email or print a piece of paper.
But things are changing slowly. As computers become a necessity of daily life, the geek design ethic (that is to say, no design, pure function) is slowly giving way to technology that is largely hidden from view. The Apple G5 iMac has been described by many reviewers as the "most beautiful computer ever made." The G5 iMac effectively has hidden the computer by concealing it entirely in the LCD screen. No boxes, no sprawl of cables, no ugly little speakers cluttering up desk space. If you buy the wireless keyboard and mouse option, the G5 iMac is completely functional with just ONE cable--the power cord.
The PaperHub is obviously inspired by the new iMac, and its styling is clearly derivative, but it would look just as good on the desk of a Windows user as a Mac user. It clever conceals a FireWire and USB hub in the form factor of a paper tray. It cuts one power supply out where you would otherwise have two, and puts all the cables in the back, behind the tray itself, where you don't have to look at them. It's simply beautiful.
Submitted by acohill on Wed, 12/08/2004 - 19:16
Glenn Reynolds, better know as Instapundit, has an article on Tech Central Station about the emerging trend of using public WiFi hotspots as business meeting places.
I wrote about this a while back, but Reynolds makes some interesting points, including this one about the effect on the real estate market:
"On the other hand, offices are expensive. I've noticed a lot of small business people in my area giving up their offices, and having meetings in public places -- Starbucks, Borders, the Public Library, and so on. In fact, a real estate agent recently told me that the small-office commercial real estate market is actually suffering as a result of so many people making this kind of move."
Economic developers, planners, and zoning commissions need to take note--the traditional definition of the commercial business zone is long gone. The industrial and business park is changing as we speak. And residential neighborhoods are filled with businesspeople working out of their homes.
Communities can ignore these trends, but do so at their peril, especially when public funds are at stake for obsolete concepts like standalone business incubators, industrial parks out in the woods, and retail on Main Street.
Submitted by acohill on Wed, 12/08/2004 - 14:02
"Put your thinking cap on" may acquire real meaning if the brain beanie these researchers have developed comes to pass. It could be a major breakthrough for those with serious physical impairments, but it is easy to imagine all sorts of other uses as well. Unfortunately, I keep thinking of applications related to improved ways to change channels--with a "channel beanie," you would not even have to pick up the remote and stab a button...you could just think the channel changed.
Submitted by acohill on Wed, 12/08/2004 - 10:22
This CNet article describes what corporate America wants from its workforce. Surprise--it's not necessarily tech-savvy youths with oversize thumbs from playing video games and keying text messages on cellphones the size of chiclets.
What corporate America wants is workers who can read and write--especially writing. Our kids are growing up and entering the workforce without the vaguest notion of how to compose a complete, grammatically correct sentence, and it's driving bosses everywhere crazy.
Email is a particular problem, as the informal style of email messages has encouraged ever more casual communication, to the point of being incomprehensible, if you look at the examples of corporate "writing" included in the article.
This reinforces the article I mentioned a couple of days ago about the study that showed that kids that spend a lot of time on the computer are dumber. Playing video games, typing code in instant messenger (r u ther, lol), and surfing the Web is not preparing our kids for the workforce.
Step one is for parents and educators to take control and stop repeating the fallacy that, "Our kids know a lot more about technology than we do." The fact that my daughter can rack up a much higher score on Super Mario Brothers does not make her smarter or more tech savvy than me. Nor do high scores on video games or the ability to send text messages on cellphones prepare them to enter the Knowledge Economy workforce.
How well do the schools in your community do in preparing your youth for the Knowledge Economy? Is there a concerted effort to make sure they can read and write at appropriate grade levels. Are you holding regular meetings with economic developers, local business leaders, and school administrators to make sure the schools are emphasizing the right stuff?
Submitted by acohill on Tue, 12/07/2004 - 09:44
A large German study of computer use in schools found that computers were overused in the early grades, and not used well enough in higher grades, like high school.
The study also found that students who spent too much time on the computer had LOWER reading and math scores. This does not surprise me, as it is entirely too easy to waste time, mostly on the Web, and parents and teachers have been too quick to assume that any time on the computer is good time.
I've had many opportunities to observe K12 technology use for a decade, and I continue to see two big problems.
Submitted by acohill on Tue, 12/07/2004 - 09:32
A Cnet article details a surprising study that shows Firefox users see four times FEWER ads than Internet Explorer users.
Firefox is the free Web browser that is increasingly popular with Windows users because it is faster and has fewer security problems than IE. It also apparently does a much better job of blocking pop-up ads, which may account for some of the differences between the two groups.
I had to spend a couple of days working on a Windows machine last week, using IE, and I was shocked at the number of pop-ups--it was actually difficult to get work done at times. I've been rather spoiled, I decided, from Safari, Apple's browser, and Firefox. Both do a pretty good job at blocking pop-up ads; so well, apparently, that I had begun to take it for granted.
Firefox is free, and can be downloaded and installed easily.
Submitted by acohill on Mon, 12/06/2004 - 13:14
According to a CNet article, BellSouth plans to provide higher capacity broadband to most of its customer base in the next five years.
Video is driving the plans. The cable companies have not only captured about 75% of the broadband market, compared to the phone companies' paltry 15%, but the cable companies can offer the fabled triple play--voice, data, and video.
The phone companies are terrified. VoIP is sapping traditional landline customers all over the country, and most of those VoIP users are getting that service over cable broadband, not DSL broadband. So the telephone companies want to offer the same thing--voice, data, and video--but their weak point is the 100 year old design of the telephone infrastructure. Most phone users in this country are still getting their dial tone the way Alexander Graham Bell designed it, but those copper cables won't haul video all the way from phone company video head ends. So BellSouth has decided to go with fiber to the node (i.e. fiber to the neighborhood), and deliver the first mile (last mile) connection over copper.
This may sound like great news, but most communities are still stuck with the same two monopoly service providers they had twenty years ago; that's not choice, and two oligarchies aren't likely to drive prices down. Continuing to overbuild private networks does not level the playing field and will not attract real competition.
Submitted by acohill on Fri, 12/03/2004 - 07:52
The USA Today had a story yesterday (page 11D) about the PillCam, a screening device that you swallow. While it travels through your body, it sends video and still images back to the doctor. The "pill," which is not much bigger than an oversize vitamin capsule, is much easier to take (literally) than an endoscopy, which requires sedation and the insertion of a tube down the throat.
It gets patients in and out of the doctor's office more quickly and with less risk. An endoscopy might still be required as a followup if the doctor decides a tissue sample is needed.
I have a great idea for a reality TV show. It's a bit like Fear Factor, where the contestants have to eat bugs, but they also have to swallow the PillCam, so we can see in real time what the little critters do once in your, um, stomach...8^).
Have a great weekend.
Submitted by acohill on Thu, 12/02/2004 - 15:55
It's not being covered much in the news, but you can be sure that the demonstrations against the stolen election in Ukraine is being organized in large part via the Internet.
Over the long term (fifty years from now), the real impact of the Internet, looking back, may be the changes it has brought to politics and nations. Short of cutting off Internet access entirely, it is no longer possible for dictators, despots, and thugs to keep people from learning what is going on in the rest of the world. Nor can they keep their own people from passing the truth from one to another. If the only thing the Internet does is help spread freedom and democracy, that's enough.
Submitted by acohill on Tue, 11/30/2004 - 10:37
A story in USA Today details how easily a Windows machine connected to the Internet (e.g. via DSL or cable modem) can be hijacked. Macintosh and Linux machines were also tested, but it was found that the numerous security holes in Windows made it more difficult to keep the machine secure.
Properly configured firewalls were considered essential, and on any of the machines running firewalls, there were no compromises. The Windows machines that were not running firewalls were broached "within minutes," with over three hundred attacks per hour noted on all the machines.
Submitted by acohill on Tue, 11/30/2004 - 09:55
It is being widely reported that Internet shopping over the Thanksgiving weekend jumped dramatically, especially on Thanksgiving Day. Apparently, while everyone was waiting for the turkey to cook, twice as many people as last year went online to do a little shopping. Friday also saw a big increase (about 50% more).
The big loser was Walmart, which did not see the big increases expected. Other stores, like Target, apparently did better. There are all sorts of theories explaining various aspects of the holiday shopping--that Target offers a nicer shopping environment and better quality, that Walmart shoppers bought from Walmart.com instead of going to the store, and so on. All the explanations probably have some truth to them.
I'm more interested in the implications for smaller and rural communities. One interesting fact is that half of broadband users were apparently shopping online, by one estimate. That's a big number, and I think the reason is that you really need (and want) broadband for online shopping. Browsing an online catalog by dialup is painful. You might as well get in the car and drive to the shopping center.
For rural communities, affordable broadband and the willingness to shop online means people living in these towns and regions have much the same shopping alternatives available to them as people in the suburbs and big cities. But you have to have the affordable broadband.
It also means that small towns and communities may want to think differently about their approach to retail. In many of the towns and regions in which I work, there is much worry and discussion about the lack of retail. Maybe this is not the problem we think it is--if your residents have affordable broadband. It may be that money spent on retail initiatives might be better directed at quality of life issues that will attract entrepreneurs and businesspeople to the community, who know they can shop online, and instead want a Main Street that supports small businesspeople (lawyers, accountants, copy services, coffee shops, good restaurants, etc.). Finally, the change agent is affordable broadband. Instead of putting new street lamps on Main Street with the hope of reviving retail stores there, invest in a public broadband infrastructure that will bring broadband providers to town--thereby letting people shop online.
Submitted by acohill on Mon, 11/29/2004 - 09:10
This New York Times article is worth a read, despite the ad you have to click through (and NYT registration is required). It's about companies that are beginning to deploy WiMax.
The article helps dispel some of the hype, like the frequently quoted "up to 30 miles" range, which is actually about half that most of the time.
On the first page of the article, one of the owners of the profiled company confirms something I have been saying for years, that "The real estate is the hard part of the business." If communities would make very modest investments in identifying where to put antennas, provide easy permitting to mount antennas on public facilities, procure tower sites, and put up towers, it would be easy to get private sector companies to come in and offer affordable wireless broadband.
But you can't have it both ways. Too many communities complain about the lack of affordable broadband, but don't want to spend any money to get it. In smaller markets (i.e. virtually all rural communities), it is naive to expect every wireless provider to come in and make substantial investments in site surveys, permits, buy or lease real estate, and invest in towers.
Make all those available easily as community infrastructure. By doing so, the community can dramatically lower the cost of market entry for private providers.
And just to be clear, none of those investments involve getting into the service side of the telecom business, if you live in a state where the legislature has prohibited that.
On the second page of the article is another bit of information that also includes something that I have been warning communities about for years: cable redundancy. The WiMax company has a major business vulnerability because a key location has no alternate cable route. Every commun
Submitted by acohill on Tue, 11/23/2004 - 10:10
Numerous reports from various sources are all pointing the runaway success of FireFox, the Open Source Web browser for Windows and other platforms. It has doubled its marketshare in the past year, and the recent release of version 1.0 has caused a big spike in downloads of the free browser.
Firefox sports significant user interface enhancements like tabbed browsing, which does away with the nuisance of having multiple browser windows littering your desktop. It also sports popup blocking, RSS news feed integration, privacy and security tools, and built-in Google searching. Microsoft does not plan an upgrade of Internet Explorer until 2006.
Submitted by acohill on Tue, 11/23/2004 - 08:09
The Energy Economy continues to heat up--literally--as practical Stirling engines, powered by light, are getting an injection of technology. The Stirling engine was invented two hundred years ago, but it was hard to control, so it was largely a novelty item.
Recent work at Sandia Labs in New Mexico has Stirling engines looking like a useful source of electric power, using sophisticated electronic controllers that manage the output of the engines. Stirling engines have only a few moving parts, and are heated by a reflective dish that looks like an oversized satellite antenna. Sandia is designing a 20,000 dish farm of Stirling engines that would generate 230,000 volts of power for an electric grid, at costs near the average of today's fossil fuel generators. Buried in the article is a nugget indicating that they plan to use hydrogen fuel cells to store power during the day and release it at night, when the Stirling engines are shut down.
Does your region have a strategy to participate in the Energy Economy? Have you done an inventory of your manufacturing companies and entrepreneurs to find out who might already be positioned to grb a piece of the energy business?
Submitted by acohill on Mon, 11/22/2004 - 15:11
Researchers have made what is being called a major breakthrough--a new process that allows the production of yarns made from carbon nanotubes.
Carbon nanotubes have been around for a while, but it has been difficult to manufacture them in forms that make them useful. The ability to produce yarns will enable the production of fabric that can be used in clothing and in the design of other products. Carbon nanotubes are extremely strong while being much lighter than metals like steel and aluminum. One of the emerging markets where carbon nanotube products are likely to be important: space, including lightweight spacecraft and strong, durable spacesuits.
Submitted by acohill on Mon, 11/22/2004 - 09:57
Iowa has what many other communities won't take the time to get--a clear, concise vision for the future. A consortium of Iowa communities and businesspeople have decided on a very simple goal--to have the best broadband infrastructure in the country.
Even better, based on the news article, they are doing it exactly the right way--with community investments in the transport layer (e.g. dark fiber) and leasing it to access and service providers who will deliver the services.
This approach is a win-win-win. Governments win because their investments are modest and manageable, and access fees provide a stable source of revenue to support the system. Private sector broadband providers win because they get access to more markets at lower cost, because the local governments are bearing part of the cost of infrastructure. Consumers win because the community investments expand the marketplace, create more competition, and lower the cost of broadband.
Don't forget that local government, schools, libraries, and health care providers are all users of broadband. Community investments lower costs for all users, public and private--don't discount the value of secondary savings from those initial public investments.
Submitted by acohill on Mon, 11/22/2004 - 09:32
The City of Philadelphia has been much in the technology news lately because of its ambitious plans to offer wireless broadband throughout much of the city. It's now back in the news with its announcement that it will fight a statewide ban on municipalities offering Internet access and related services.
On the one hand, these legislative attempts to throttle community projects are almost always the handiwork of the incumbent phone companies, who typically are nonpartisan in their strategy--they give money to all legislators, who then too often pass bills favoring these companies. A cynic might view this as selling out the electorate.
On the other hand, I don't believe local governments ought to be in the service business for broadband. It's not the same as water or electricity, and the fact that the community has municipal water and/or electric service does not, in my opinion, necessarily justify going into the broadband business.
As I have said repeatedly, I view more it like roads. Communities build and maintain roads, but they don't own the cars and trucks (or the businesses) that use those roads.
I'm very much in favor of municipal and local government investments in broadband, ESPECIALLY in underserved communities, but I think the way to do it is to keep the delivery of access and services in the private sector, where jobs are created and taxes are paid. It's a little more work and effort at the outset to make sure you have the right business and administrative model, but over the long term, making the private sector a partner is going to have a much better outcome.
Submitted by acohill on Mon, 11/22/2004 - 09:27
A crucial step in the developing space tourism business occurred when the House passed a bill approving taking tourists into space.
At issue is the potential risk. Investors in the space business don't want huge lawsuits hanging over their heads, and the bill would allow companies to take tourists into space under the same "at your own risk" liability that other dangerous sports like mountainclimbing, hang-gliding, and skydiving have--you sign a waiver if you want to jump out of an airplane.
This bill still has to go through the Senate and get signed by the President, but the fact that the House acted quickly on this is a good sign. The emerging Space Economy marches on.
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